Timo Werner
Will he or won't he? That's the question in the minds of executives at several top Premier League clubs, who all want to know if Timo Werner will ever leave the Bundesliga. There's been interest – or at least gossip – from Liverpool, Chelsea, and Manchester United, but the opportunity to succeed Robert Lewandowski at Bayern Munich has also been looming. Even Atletico Madrid may have their hat in the ring. So why do clubs covet Werner so much?
From a simply statistical point of view, it's because there's no one like him. Werner is 23 and has improved his attacking output and ball retention for the past three seasons at striker. Here they are at a Premier League standard:
2017-18: 31 / 55
2018-19: 78 / 61
2019-20: 96 / 81
That's right – this season his attacking output translates to 96 out of 99 in the Premier League, and his ball retention is huge as well. He's above average both ways in ground duels and finishing non-headers in open play. The only thing he can't do – and where he lags Lewandowski – is win duels and score in the air, and to be fair he rarely even tries.
In our entire database, only six players in Europe who have come within 10 points of Werner's 2019-20 ratings for attacking output and ball retention over at least 950' (the equivalent of ten full matches) at striker. You'll have heard of most of them: Lionel Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo, Kylian Mbappe, Karim Benzema, Lewandowski, and Josip Ilicic (last season at Atalanta, when he had 12 goals and 7 assists in about 2,200'). That's some company, especially for a 23-year-old.
If there's a caveat with Werner, it's that players with a similar style haven't always been among the most successful in the Premier League. The closest matches to his style have been Marko Arnautovic and Jay Rodriguez, both in 2017-18. These guys are versatile, fairly mobile strikers to be sure, but they don't get as many shots off as Werner. Still, his production is so enormous in Germany that it's hard to imagine him being a dud in England.
So where would he fit in best? Chelsea already have a strong central striker in Tammy Abraham, whom we'll be profiling soon, and Manchester United really need more of a target man who can operate in the air as well as on the ground. Liverpool would be a more ideal fit, but who's going to take minutes away from Roberto Firmino?
Atleti is probably the club that needs Werner most. Alvaro Morata and the aging (and injured) Diego Costa can't fill the same role that Antoine Griezmann did there before he moved to Barcelona, but Werner could. Atleti can't outspend Bayern or the Premier League's giants, so it'll be up to Diego Simeone to persuade Werner that he belongs in red and white stripes. Suerte, Diego...
Would you like to have your player featured in the playerfocus on our homepage, for thousands of users and football professionals to see? Just click the Contact link at the bottom of this page to email us your request.
[Photo: Steffen Proessdorf]
