Is Ricardo Pepi the American striker of the future?
It's not every day that an American teenager attracts the attention of some of the biggest clubs in Europe, including Champions League winners like Liverpool, Bayern Munich, and Inter Milan. But actually... maybe it is? The United States is producing an unprecedented crop of football/soccer talent, and 18-year-old striker Ricardo Pepi is just the latest name on an impressive list of exports. How far can he go?
Pepi plays as a striker for Dallas, a club that has done more than its share for the American production line. In the past several seasons, Dallas has moved Chris Richards to Bayern Munich, Bryan Reynolds to Roma, Tanner Tessman to Venezia, and Reggie Cannon to Boavista. Not long ago, that kind of record would have been unheard of in Major League Soccer. Pepi is from El Paso, and Reynolds is from Fort Worth. But those other guys hail from Birmingham (the one in Alabama) and Chicago, so the club is casting its net pretty widely.
The latest reports suggest Pepi may be on his way to Wolfsburg, so here are his stats at a Bundesliga standard:
Pepi's attacking output is still low for Germany's senior circuit, but his other numbers look fine. In fact, his skill ratings are better than fine – excellent in aerial duels in open play and in 1v1s on the ball, plus phenomenal finishing. It's that finishing skill – the kind that makes scouts use the word "natural" – which has helped to pique the interest of the European heavyweights. And you can see the evidence in these stats:
Pepi has been finishing at almost double the rate you'd expect given the quality of his chances, and he's kept it up over a fairly large number of shots. He might not be able to continue like this forever, especially against the Bundesliga's GKs, but the signs are obviously promising. And despite Pepi's relatively low attacking output for the Bundesliga, the fact that he's been involved in more than half of Dallas's most dangerous attacks suggests that he could grow into the same role for a top club.
Another source of Pepi's attraction is his ability to play as a true central striker. In open play, he can score with his foot or his head from central locations from the goal mouth to the edge of the penalty area:
In a sea of false nines and converted wingers, there just aren't many of Pepi's kind around these days. Even for a club that starts matches without an out-and-out striker, having the option to bring one off the bench is a huge positive.
One reason why Pepi's attacking output is low for the Bundesliga is that he's not as influential outside the box. He does a lot of link-up passing, especially in the left channel just across midfield, but he really wants to be receiving balls in the box:
He has these tendencies in common with several European strikers, but perhaps none more than Marseille's Arkadiusz Milik and Gladbach's Alassane Plea. Like Pepi, both of them did a lot of link-up passing in their earlier seasons, and they also had very high shot volumes. But they didn't do much as creators, either on the dribble or by passing towards goal:
Milik and Plea were also older than Pepi when they generated these stats, and their styles have changed somewhat since. Pepi has plenty of time to reach a higher level of attacking output and to become a more well rounded striker. Clearly, the raw materials are there.
And this makes Pepi's potential all the more exciting for fans of the US Men's National Team. The current "golden generation" has loads of talent in wide areas and central midfield, but there's been less clarity about the point of the spear. Coach Gregg Berhalter's obsession with Josh Sargent hasn't helped, and Tim Weah and Jordan Pefok have shown flashes of real ability in recent matches. But if Pepi becomes the talismanic central striker the USMNT has been missing since the days of Brian McBride, then, once the team matures, they may finally be able to compete at the very highest level.
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