Where did it all go wrong for Harry Kane?
And so it begins. Harry Kane has given rather equivocal answers to the latest questions about his future. He's a big player who'd like to win some big trophies. But will Europe's megaclubs come calling for a striker whose numbers have been in decline?
Kane is just 26 years old, which is young for a workhorse CF in today's game. Injuries have always been a bit of a worry for him; they've caused him to miss an average of nine matches per season since his loan to Norwich in 2012-13. Lately, though, the question has been whether he still has the almost supernatural ability to score that saw him bag 25 goals or more in three straight seasons.
Let's take a look at his basic stats first:
There's been a steady decline in Kane's attacking output over the past two seasons, after a peak in 2017-18. His ball retention has also declined, but he's still incredibly proficient in duels. So it's not as though his skill has disappeared; instead, he's just been taking more risks. And Kane continues to be a magnificent finisher in most situations.
What's the source of the decline, then? Let's see how Kane's style of play has changed over the years:
In 2017-18, Kane was the rare target man who could also move the ball and supply incisive passes toward goal as well. Then in 2018-19 his receiving in the box and shooting eroded a little bit, and this season he no longer looks like a target man at all but rather a typical mobile striker who may not be the focal point of his club's attack and has to grab his opportunities when he can. This contrast comes across starkly in his smartermaps for 2017-18 and 2019-20:
On the left, Kane is taking almost all of his touches in the final third, with a huge number of shots in the box and also just outside the box. At the edge of the final third, he has a mix of dribbles and passes. On the right, Kane is taking far more touches near the midfield line, making short passes and dribbles through the channels, and then occasionally getting just inside the box to shoot.
If we look at Kane's involvement in Tottenham's most successful moves, we can see how peripheral he has become:
His involvement in moves leading to shots has fallen somewhat – along with his shot quality – but his involvement in moves leading to goals has dropped dramatically. In part, this is because Spurs have found ways to score that don't involve Kane. But it's also because Kane, one of the world's best finishers, isn't taking as many of the shots at the ends of those moves.
For comparison, here are the same stats for Son Heung-Min, who often plays across the pitch from Kane on the occasions when both are healthy:
Son's involvement in moves leading to shots has risen, but his involvement in total expected goals and actual goals hasn't. The simple explanation is that he's taking more shots, but shot quality has fallen – which it has, with a 9% estimated chance of scoring in 2019-20 versus 16% in 2017-18. Son is an extraordinary finisher, too, but he's not getting the highest-quality chances.
Why have these changes occurred? In Kane's absence, it was natural that Son would get more opportunities. But also, the supply line to Kane has been interrupted by the disappearance of Christian Eriksen, both physically (since his switch to Inter Milan) and spiritually (during the season or more that he sulked around waiting for a move). Here's how Eriksen's numbers evolved:
In 2017-18, Eriksen had a range of passing, very good ball retention, and a slew of ball recoveries despite rather low overall effort as a defender. In the following season, his ball retention dropped along with his ball recoveries – it just didn't seem like he was trying as hard. And in the scarce minutes he saw this season, his passing became much riskier, as though he was trying to hit the jackpot every time he got the ball. It didn't help that over the same period, Dele Alli seemed to become less interested in assists and more intent on scoring himself.
If Kane wants to leave because he feels like Spurs can no longer offer the service that a predatory striker requires, then he has something of a case. The fact that he's been forced to play so much further back on the pitch is fairly inexplicable. As the focal point at a club with a more fluid style of play and providers all around him, Kane will almost certainly thrive. That is, if he can stay healthy.
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[Photo: Кирилл Венедиктов]
